Here at More Than Just a Game we love sports. With spring training coming to a close and the start of the season a week away we thought this was a perfect time to offer up some predictions on the 2016 MLB season.
New York Mets – 88
The two experts disagree here. Fan graphs likes the Mets for 88, while Pecota is pencilling in 91.
Washington Nationals – 87
Both sites think this number is dead on.
Miami Marlins – 80.5
This seems to be a popular sleeper pick. Fan graphs sees them getting to .500, but Pecota thinks they come up short of the over/under.
Philadelphia Phillies – 66.5
This number is probably dead on. This is a team trying to build from the ground up.
Atlanta Braves – 65
Both sites see this team with 68 wins. It’s a full rebuild going on here.
Chicago Cubs – 89
The Cubs brought in Jason Hayward and Ben Zobrist to add to an already impressive hitting lineup. Pecota has them for 92 wins while Fangraphs likes them for 94.
St. Louis Cardinals – 87.5
The Cardinals always over achieve, so it’s never a surprise that both projections show them coming up 4-5 wins short. St. Louis lost two top players in Jason Hayward and John Lackey.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 87
The run probably stops here for Pittsburgh. Neither site thinks another 90 win season is in site. Both have them 3-4 wins under the mark.
Milwaukee Brewers – 71.5
Who knows about this team. Fan graphs doesn’t think they get to 71, while Pecota likes them to go over by six.
Cincinnati Reds – 71
No Chapman. No Frazier. No improvement. Both sites thinks Vegas is close.
San Francisco Giants – 90
Neither projection thinks the Giants get to 90. The signing of Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto bolsters and already solid rotation, but Fangraphs only sees 85 wins and Pelota likes them for 87.
LA Dodgers – 87
The Dodgers lost a stud in Zack Greinke, but did add Scott Kazmir. Still, Pecota has them for 94 wins while Fangraphs projects 91.
Arizona Dbacks – 84.5
They made a splash by stealing Greinke away from the Dodgers, but neither site seems them making the jump past 80 wins.
San Diego Padres – 74
Fan graphs thinks Vegas is dead on, while Pecota believes it’s a 77 win season. Losing Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton, and Ian Kennedy spells trouble for me.
Colorado Rockies – 68.5
Is there some value in the over here? Both sites have the Rockies at 74.
Toronto Blue Jays – 87
This is a small lean towards the under with both sites thinking 87 is high. There is plenty of offense, but not a lot of improvement.
Boston Red Sox – 85.5
Signing Dave Price should help their rotation. Both projections think this team will be improved and go 3-5 wins over their total.
NY Yankees – 85
This number looks dead on. An already exception bullpen added Aroldis Chapman.
Baltimore Orioles – 80.5
Another one Pecota sees as being off. They have the O’s at 72 while Fangraphs has a more generous 78.
Tampa Bay Rays – 78
Here’s a sleeper. Both sites see them going over. Fan graphs by four, but Pecota by a whopping 13. Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and Steve Pearce were all brought in.
KC Royals – 87
The Royals might be the best under bet on the board. Neither site thinks Kansas City gets to 80.
Detroit Tigers – 85
A lot of big money was spent here. Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmerman got paid, but can they deliver? Neither site thinks they get above .500.
Cleveland Indians – 84
Don’t sleep on the Cleveland Indians according to Pecota. They have them going over by 8. I don’t know if I like that since there aren’t any big additions.
Chicago White Sox – 80.5
I like the addition of Todd Frazier, but both sites see this projection as dead on.
Minnesota Twins – 77.5
This total is probably about right, even though the Twins did add Byung-ho Park. He’s a Korean slugger who hit 105 home runs the last two years.
Texas Rangers – 86
This total seems high as both sites like the under by 5 wins.
Houston Astros – 85.5
There might be some value in the over here. The young core should only improve and both sites like the over.
Seattle Mariners – 83
A new manager but the Mariners probably will still find themselves right around .500.
LA Angels – 82.5
Pecota doesn’t love the Angels. Fan graphs thinks this number is about right.
Oakland A’s – 75.5
The A’s probably won’t be very good, but Fangraphs thinks they go over by 3 wins.